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Is the S&P 500’s strength hiding a weaker market beneath the surface?
Only 35.1% of eligible S&P 500 companies are above their 50-day moving average, yet those companies…
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What is the bond market telling us?
My latest note examines how equities and the dollar have behaved during and after substantial increases…
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Does Fed tightening still lead to a flatter yield curve?
Historically, the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread has tended to narrow as tightening progresses. Short-term yields…
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Are rising Treasury yields signalling a loss of confidence in the United States, or a higher price for long-term capital?
The US 10-year Treasury yield has risen from 4.18% at the end of 2025 to around…
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Is the bond market repricing inflation, or something more structural?…
The 5y5y forward real yield has risen to around 2.8%, while the corresponding inflation breakeven sits…
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What is really driving US Treasury yields higher?…
This post has been first posted on LinkedIn by Amir Khamidullin and the New World Investment…
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Is the US losing its fiscal credibility?…
This post has been first posted on LinkedIn by Amir Khamidullin and the New World Investment…
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AI CapEx Is High, But Not Yet Historically Extreme
AI investment may be unusually high without being historically abnormal. However, that comparison addresses only the…
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Is AI replacing entry-level jobs?
The data tell a more nuanced story… While recent graduates continue to fare better than young…
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Business formation is broadening , yet the new firms do not plan to hire…
Bank of America internal data shows the lower-income share of new business applications rising from roughly…
Independent research and commentary for informational purposes only. Not investment advice.